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86.
Instability of exogenous lava lobes during intense rainfall   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
On many volcanoes, there is evidence of a relationship between dome collapse and periods of high precipitation. We propose a mechanism for this relationship and investigate the conditions that optimize failure by this process. Observations of elongate lobes that evolve through exogenous growth of lava domes reveal that they commonly develop tensile fractures perpendicular to the direction of motion. These cracks can increase in depth by localized cooling and volumetric contraction. During periods of high rainfall, water can fill these cracks, and the increase in fluid pressure on the base of the lobes and within the crack can trigger the collapse of the hot exogenous lava domes. Using limit-equilibrium analysis, it is possible to calculate the water and vapor forces acting on the rear and base of the potentially unstable part of the lobe. The model presented is rectangular in cross-section, with material properties representative of andesitic dome rocks. Vapor pressures at the base of cracks are sealed by the penetrating rainfall, which forms a saturated cap within the lobe. This leads to an increase in fluid pressurization both through the underlying gas pressure and the downslope component of the liquid water cap. Fluid pressurization increases as the penetration depth increases. This rainfall penetration depth is dependent on the thermal properties of the rocks, antecedent temperature, lobe geometry, and the intensity and duration of precipitation. Dominant parameters influencing the stability of the lobe are principally lobe thickness, duration and intensity of rainfall, and antecedent lobe temperature. Our modeling reveals that thicker lobes are intrinsically more unstable due to the amplification of downslope forces in comparison to cohesive strength. The increase in the duration and intensity of rainfall events also increases the potential for collapse, as it leads to deeper liquid penetration. Deeper penetration depths are also achieved through lower antecedent temperatures since less fluid is lost through vaporization. Thus, the potential for rain-triggered collapse increases with time from emplacement.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell  相似文献   
87.
Geospatially Enabled Scientific Workflows offer a promising toolset to help researchers in the earth observation domain with many aspects of the scientific process. One such aspect is that of access to distributed earth observation data and computing resources. Earth observation research often utilizes large datasets requiring extensive CPU and memory resources in their processing. These resource intensive processes can be chained; the sequence of processes (and their provenance) makes up a scientific workflow. Despite the exponential growth in capacity of desktop computers, their resources are often insufficient for the scientific workflow processing tasks at hand. By integrating distributed computing capabilities into a geospatially enabled scientific workflow environment, it is possible to provide researchers with a mechanism to overcome the limitations of the desktop computer. Most of the effort on extending scientific workflows with distributed computing capabilities has focused on the web services approach, as exemplified by the OGC's Web Processing Service and by GRID computing. The approach to leveraging distributed computing resources described in this article uses instead remote objects via RPyC and the dynamic properties of the Python programming language. The Vistrails environment has been extended to allow for geospatial processing through the EO4Vistrails package ( http://code.google.com/p/eo4vistrails/ ). In order to allow these geospatial processes to be seamlessly executed on distributed resources such as cloud computing nodes, the Vistrails environment has been extended with both multi‐tasking capabilities and distributed processing capabilities. The multi‐tasking capabilities are required in order to allow Vistrails to run side‐by‐side processes, a capability it does not currently have. The distributed processing capabilities are achieved through the use of remote objects and mobile code through RPyC.  相似文献   
88.
Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO2 constraint earlier in the century.  相似文献   
89.
Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   
90.
Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning   总被引:10,自引:1,他引:9  
Much emphasis has been placed on the importance of learning to support collaborative environmental management and achieve sustainability under conditions of social–ecological change. Yet, on-going struggles to learn from experience and respond to complex social–ecological conditions reflect an emerging paradox. Despite widespread support of learning as a normative goal and process, core concepts, assumptions and approaches to learning have been applied in vague and sometimes uncritical ways. Greater specificity with respect to learning goals, approaches and outcomes is required. In response to this gap, we examine five dimensions of the learning paradox in the context of adaptive co-management, where the learning and linking functions of governance are stressed: (i) definitions of learning; (ii) learning goals and expectations; (iii) mechanisms by which learning takes place; (iv) questions regarding who is involved in the process of learning; and (v) the risks and ethical ambiguities faced by different actors expected to willingly participate in a learning process, whether formal or informal. Lessons from experience with a series of cases from the global North and South illustrate the implications of these dimensions. Resolving the dimensions of this learning paradox will require greater attention to capacity-building, recognition of the role of risk, and consideration of how incentives could be used to encourage learning. Further consideration of the role of power and marginality among groups participating in the learning process is also needed, as is more systematic evaluation to monitor and measure learning outcomes.  相似文献   
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